:Product: 20000713RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Jul 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 195 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUL 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A TOTAL OF FIVE M1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THREE OF THE EVENTS WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 9070 (N22W77), ONE CAME FROM REGION 9085 (N12E59), AND ONE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 (N17E03) HAVE MAINTAINED COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION 9085 AND THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 9086 (S10W40) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. NUMEROUS MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9070, 9077, OR 9085. ALSO, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF THE THREE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 13/0954Z (30 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 500 TO OVER 700 KM/S AROUND 13/0900Z MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL. ONE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 13/1200-1500Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PERIOD. A MODERATE (8.0 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE STARTED AT APPROXIMATELY 13/1130Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE SECOND DAY AND BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL CLASS M 80/80/80 CLASS X 30/30/30 PROTON 20/20/20 PCAF YELLOW IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 13 JUL 232 PREDICTED 14 JUL-16 JUL 230/225/210 90 DAY MEAN 13 JUL 183 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL 020/020-012/015-010/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 60/30/25 MINOR STORM 25/15/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/35/30 MINOR STORM 35/25/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/05