:Product: 20000715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 197 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 9077 (N18W21)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 15/0833Z.  WHILE THE REGION HAS
SHOWN SOME SLIGHT DECAY IN AREA, THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE REGION HAS MAINTAINED A COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.  SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS ALSO OCCURRED FROM REGION 9077 AND 9085 (N14E33).  A TYPE II
SWEEP OCCURRED AT 15/1433Z WITH NO X-RAY CORRELATION.  THE TYPE II
SPEED WAS 788 KM/S.  NEW REGION 9089 (N18E41) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  REGION 9077 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER
MAJOR EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
THE SUDDEN STORM COMMENCMENT BEGAN AT 15/1440Z.  THIS STORM IS
RELATED TO THE X5/3B EVENT ON 14 JULY.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT HAS SO FAR REACHED A PEAK OF 24000 PFU'S AT 15/1230Z.
THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT, STILL IN PROGRESS, HAS
DECLINED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  A MODERATE (8.2 PERCENT) FORBUSH
DECREASE,WAS OBSERVED ON THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITOR.  THE
PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT BEGAN AT ABOUT 14/1041Z , PEAKED AT
49.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS.  MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION
MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074), BEGINNING
15/1555Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15/2100Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS, AND THE HIGHER
LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS
DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO START DECREASING ON THE SECOND DAY AND PREDOMINATELY
RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    35/35/35
PROTON     99/99/99
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUL 213
PREDICTED   16 JUL-18 JUL  205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUL 184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  033/035
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  080/120
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  100/130-050/060-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/40
MINOR STORM           20/25/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    70/50/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/35
MINOR STORM           10/20/40
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    80/60/20