:Product: 20000724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 206 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL
MASS EJECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SOHO LASCO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LONGER DURATION FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 22 JULY AT 1117Z.  THE
SAME EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A SMALL SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ON
22 JULY.  LASCO ALSO REPORTED A PARTIAL HALO ON 23 JULY, POSSIBLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FILAMENT ERUPTION IN REGION 9097, NOW AT N07E00.
REGION 9097 REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE AND COMPLEX REGION, BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE A TREND TOWARD SIMPLIFICATION AND LOWER LEVELS OF
ACTIVITY IN ALMOST ALL REGIONS.  A LARGE CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AT ABOUT N30 TO N40.
ANOTHER SMALLER HOLE IS VISIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTH-EASTWARD FROM
NEAR REGION 9097 TO ABOUT S15 AND FROM CENTRAL MERIDIAN EASTWARD FOR
ABOUT,15 DEGREES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A DECLINING CHANCE OF MORE ENERGETIC ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED.  EFFECTS OF THE CME ON 22 JULY MAY
MATERIALIZE DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
CLASS M    80/70/60
CLASS X    25/20/20
PROTON     35/35/25
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUL 225
PREDICTED   25 JUL-27 JUL  220/210/205
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUL 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  020/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  020/020-020/020-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           25/25/13
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    12/12/06