:Product: 20000729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 211 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES
WERE OBSERVED, THOUGH MANY WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.  AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 28/2222Z, MOST
LIKELY RESULTING FROM ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LIMB.  THE LARGEST FLARE
OBSERVED WAS A C3.5/SF FROM REGION 9105 (N14E54).  SMALLER
C-CLASS/SF FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 9100 (S29W28), 9103
(N08W11), AND NEW REGION 9107 (S19E69).  REGION 9103 EXHIBITED
CONTINUED GROWTH, WHILE REGION 9097 (N09W68) HAS FURTHER DECAYED.
NEW REGIONS NUMBERED TODAY INCLUDE 9107, 9108 (S09W18), AND 9109
(S07E40).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES.
ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO CONTINUED EFFECTS OF TRANSIENT MATERIAL PASSAGE
FROM THE CME OBSERVED ON 25 JULY.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ACTIVE
LEVELS MAY BE OBSERVED IN CONJUNCTION WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED BY DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUL 153
PREDICTED   30 JUL-01 AUG  150/150/155
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUL 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL  016/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  021/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01