:Product: 20000731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  SEVERAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED.  THE LARGEST WAS A
C3 OBSERVED AT 31/0206Z.   REGION 9107 WAS SPLIT INTO TWO REGIONS
TODAY:  REGION 9107 (S16E38), AND NEW REGION 9110 (S19E55), WITH
BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND DSO AND ESO SPOT CLASSIFICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF
MODERATE ACTIVITY BY DAY THREE DUE TO ROTATION OF ACTIVE REGIONS
AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS OBSERVED IN THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTOR AT MIDDLE AND HIGH
LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE.  QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY BY DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG
CLASS M    20/20/25
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JUL 148
PREDICTED   01 AUG-03 AUG  155/155/165
90 DAY MEAN        31 JUL 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  014/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  012/018-012/018-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01