:Product: 20000801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 214 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP AT 01/0346Z.  THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM
AN ACTIVE REGION JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB.  REGION 9104
(S19W01) EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH TODAY, AND NEW REGION 9111 (N10E28)
WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH DAY TWO, WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF MODERATE
FLARES.  A GREATER CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY DAY
THREE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.  AN
ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING WAS OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES
DURING 31/2100-2400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY ONE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS, ARE EXPECTED FOR DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
CLASS M    20/20/30
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 AUG 149
PREDICTED   02 AUG-04 AUG  155/165/180
90 DAY MEAN        01 AUG 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL  017/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG  014/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG  014/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01