:Product: 20000802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 215 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C7 FLARE AND ASSOCIATED CME AT 02/0815Z FROM NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 9114 (N10E77). REGION 9113 (S25W11) WAS ALSO
NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFAINT FLARES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION'S CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO REGION 9104 (S20W13) ADDS TO ITS COMPLEXITY AND FLARE POTENTIAL.
AN IMPRESSIVE PROMINENCE ERUPTION AND CME WAS OBSERVED OFF THE NE
LIMB BEGINNING AT AROUND 02/1700Z. REGION 9112 (N14W14) WAS ALSO
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS WITH A TREND TOWARD INCREASING ACTIVITY. LIMB
PROXIMITY PREVENTS ACCURATE MAGNETIC ANALYSIS OF NEW REGION 9114,
BUT CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY. NEW REGION 9113 IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
9077 ON THE NE LIMB IS EXPECTED NEXT PERIOD; HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
CONSIDERABLY SMALLER AND LESS COMPLEX THAN LAST ROTATION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD BETWEEN 02/00 - 03Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
CLASS M    30/35/35
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 AUG 151
PREDICTED   03 AUG-05 AUG  155/165/180
90 DAY MEAN        02 AUG 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01