:Product: 20000808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 221 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 08/1115 UTC. OTHER THAN THIS FLARE
ONLY A FEW LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. THE LARGEST WAS A
C1/SF IN REGION 9122 (N22E35) AT 07/2342 UTC. REGION 9114 (N11W01)
REMAINS THE LARGEST, MOST COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
NEW REGION 9123 (N18E72) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SMALL H-TYPE
SUNSPOT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE AND ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 AUG 170
PREDICTED   09 AUG-11 AUG  175/180/190
90 DAY MEAN        08 AUG 191
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01