:Product: 20000809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 222 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES. SPOTLESS REGION 9111 (N10W81)
PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SUBFLARES, AS DID REGION 9114 (N11W16). REGION
9114 IS STILL THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT HAS
SHOWN DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE SOUTHEAST LIMB NEAR S10 HAS ALSO
BEEN ACTIVE AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE SOURCE OF YESTERDAY'S M1
FLARE. THIS RETURNING AREA IS NEAR THE LOCATION OF OLD REGION 9087
(S12, L=235) WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE GENERAL LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN AT THE
EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 AUG 182
PREDICTED   10 AUG-12 AUG  190/200/210
90 DAY MEAN        09 AUG 191
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  005/008-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01