:Product: 20000812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 225 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 XRAY FLARE AT 0956Z,
SEEN BY SOHO EIT TO BE JUST BEYOND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, WAS THE
LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, WITH
REGIONS 9114 (N10W58) AND 9125 (N25E42) CONTRIBUTING THE MAJORITY.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9128 (N11E61) AND 9129 (S05E72).
REGION 9125 GREW SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PERIOD AS IT PRODUCED
FREQUENT FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCES OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS, AS
ENHANCED SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. THE
IMF IS STILL SOUTHWARD WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 10 NT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CURRENT STORM SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER TIME, YIELDING TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY THE PERIOD'S END. EXPECT LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 AUG 189
PREDICTED   13 AUG-15 AUG  195/200/205
90 DAY MEAN        12 AUG 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG  039/060
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG  050/120
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG  030/060-020/030-015/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/50
MINOR STORM           30/50/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    40/15/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/40
MINOR STORM           20/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    60/40/20