:Product: 20000813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 226 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 1348Z FROM REGION 9125 (N25E29).
THIS GROUP IS THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS
VISIBLE, SHOWING SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL AS AN EXPANSE OF
BRIGHT PLAGE. PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED AT THE NW LIMB MUCH
OF THE INTERVAL. NEW REGIONS 9130 (S23W13) AND 9131 (N13W71) WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS EARLY,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER 0600Z. THE MAJOR STORM OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS SUBSIDED AS THE SOLAR WIND CALMED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS MAY STILL SEE SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 AUG 186
PREDICTED   14 AUG-16 AUG  190/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        13 AUG 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  055/109
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  012/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  010/015-010/015-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/40
MINOR STORM           15/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/50
MINOR STORM           20/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05