:Product: 20000818RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 231 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C5/1F LONG DURATION FLARE AT 18/0445Z FROM REGION 9127
(S37W67). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE.
REGION 9125 (N26W36), EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION, IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, BUT
OTHER THAN A VERY IMPULSIVE C1/SF FLARE AT 18/1810Z, THIS REGION WAS
QUIET. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 AUG 170
PREDICTED   19 AUG-21 AUG  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        18 AUG 185
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05