:Product: 20000823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 236 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED.  CURRENT DISK REGIONS ARE SMALL AND EXHIBITED ONLY
MINOR EVOLUTION.  THE EAST LIMB WAS QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL THE 23/0900-1800Z TIME PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WERE OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME.  QUIET
RETURNED FOR THE 23/1800-2100Z PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 24-25 AUGUST
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE.  MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 AUG 137
PREDICTED   24 AUG-26 AUG  134/132/132
90 DAY MEAN        23 AUG 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 AUG  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG  010/012-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01