:Product: 20000825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 238 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE.  REGION 9143 (S19E59)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 25/1435Z.  THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
II/IV AND A 130 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ.  A LARGE DENSE MASS EJECTION
FOLLOWED THE EVENT AND WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE PRIMARILY OFF THE EAST
LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR.  PRIOR TO THIS EVENT, REGION 9143 WAS
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE.  A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR N37W21 ERUPTED BETWEEN
25/0955-1123Z.  THIS FILAMENT ELEVATED AND BECAME MORE DENSE FOR AT
LEAST A DAY BEFORE THE ERUPTION.  A SMALL REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE
RAPIDLY NEAR N25E14 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9144.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW.  OBVIOUSLY, REGION 9143 IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS
EVENTS.  HOWEVER, THE LACK OF OBVIOUS GROWTH AND MAGNETIC SIMPLICITY
ARGUE FOR ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS STEADY NEAR
400 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AT THIS
TIME, THE MASS EJECTION OBSERVED TODAY IS NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT
THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 AUG 133
PREDICTED   26 AUG-28 AUG  135/137/140
90 DAY MEAN        25 AUG 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05