:Product: 20000827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 240 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 9144 (N22W12) PRODUCED
AN C3/1N EVENT AT 26/2216Z  A LARGE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED NEAR N30W36
AROUND 27/0545Z.  REGION 9140 (N09W01) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION
C1/SF EVENT AT 27/1208Z.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C6/SF AT 27/1740Z
FROM REGION 9143 (S20E33).  THIS REGION HAS SHOWN MODERATE GROWTH IN
AREA AND SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY 290 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT WITH 12 SPOTS.  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS
REGION 9145 (S10E60) AND 9146 (S26E51).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  REGIONS 9143 AND 9144 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 AUG 150
PREDICTED   28 AUG-30 AUG  160/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        27 AUG 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG  004/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  008/012-010/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05