:Product: 20000902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 246 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE C-CLASS
FLARE TODAY, A C2 AT 0340Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION
9149 (N12E06) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT CONTINUES TO BE
VERY STABLE AND QUIET. NINE DEGREES OF A FILAMENT NEAR S33W21
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0046-1150Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9149.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WAS A
MINOR STORM PERIOD FROM 0900-1200Z. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A
RESULT OF AN ONGOING HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS HIGH
SPEED STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH
LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTORS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ACTIVE PERIODS.
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 SEP 154
PREDICTED   03 SEP-05 SEP  155/155/165
90 DAY MEAN        02 SEP 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP  012/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05