:Product: 20000903RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Sep 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 247 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 SEP 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 9149 (N14W10) WAS STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT REMAINED A MEDIUM-SIZED E-TYPE GROUP WITH MINOR POLARITY MIXING OBSERVED NEAR ITS LEADER SPOT. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL, STABLE, AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. NEW REGION 9155 (S11E32) WAS NUMBERED. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP CLASS M 20/20/20 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 05/05/05 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 03 SEP 154 PREDICTED 04 SEP-06 SEP 155/160/165 90 DAY MEAN 03 SEP 181 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP 018/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP 012/012-012/012-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/25/20 MINOR STORM 10/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/25 MINOR STORM 15/15/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/05