:Product: 20000905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 249 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS.  REGION 9154
(S19W07) CONTINUED IN A GRADUAL GROWTH PHASE AND REMAINED THE
LARGEST AND MOST FLARE PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS.  IT
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A
C6/SF AT 05/0008 UTC.  REGION 9149 (N13W35) SHOWED SIGNS OF MINOR
DECAY AND PRODUCED AN ISOLATED SUBFLARE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE.  SOHO/LASCO IMAGES INDICATED A PARTIAL-HALO CME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER (32-DEGREE EXTENT,
N13W38).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY ONE.  ACTIVE TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 7 - 8 SEPTEMBER DUE TO AN
EXPECTED CME PASSAGE AT EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 SEP 180
PREDICTED   06 SEP-08 SEP  185/190/190
90 DAY MEAN        05 SEP 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  015/012-030/030-030/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/30/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/15/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/35/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/20