:Product: 20000907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 251 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD:  A C7.2
LONG DURATION FLARE AT 07/2055 UTC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE-II RADIO
SWEEP, AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF ASSOCIATED TYPE-IV RADIO SWEEP.
NO CORRELATED OPTICAL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY
INFORMATION INDICATES THE SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS REGION 9151
(N12W47).  AVAILABLE INFORMATION IS PRESENTLY INSUFFICIENT TO GAUGE
THE GEOEFFECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.  REGION 9151
ALSO PRODUCED A C4.4/SF FLARE EARLIER IN THE DAY, AT 07/1115 UTC,
AND HAS EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY.  C-CLASS ACTIVITY WAS
ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGION 9149 (S15W62).  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY:  9158 (N30E70) AND 9159 (S19E31).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 9149 AND 9154 (S18W35) REMAIN POTENTIAL
SOURCES OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS ON DAY ONE, AS THE DISTURBANCE WHICH
COMMENCED YESTERDAY SUBSIDES.  QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 SEP 173
PREDICTED   08 SEP-10 SEP  180/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        07 SEP 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05