:Product: 20000909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 253 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 9151 (N13W74)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE-II RADIO SWEEP AT
09/0849 UTC.  AVAILABLE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATES AN ASSOCIATED
HALO CME WITH ITS EASTERN FLANK LIKELY DIRECTED EARTHWARD.  REGION
9154 (S17W62) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 09/0520 UTC.  NEW REGION 9160
(S12E05) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH AN
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD ON 08/2100-2400 UTC.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH DAY ONE, INCREASING TO
ACTIVE LEVELS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE, WITH THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CME DISCUSSED IN SECTION 1A ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 SEP 151
PREDICTED   10 SEP-12 SEP  145/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        09 SEP 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP  014/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 SEP-12 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/35
MINOR STORM           15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05