:Product: 20000910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 254 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS A C1/SF FLARE AT 10/0010 UTC, FROM REGION 9158 (N29E32).
X-RAY FLUX SINCE THEN HAS REMAINED AT BACKGROUND LEVELS, EXHIBITING
ONLY B-CLASS FLARING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 9158 AND 9154 (S17W75) ARE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR C-CLASS
FLARES.  ISOLATED CHANCES FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY STILL EXIST FROM
REGIONS 9154 AND 9151 (N10W87) UNTIL THEY TRANSIT THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS, WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS NEAR THE END OF DAY ONE, DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SHOCK ARRIVAL FROM THE CME ACTIVITY NOTED ON 09/0849 UTC.  ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR DAY TWO AND INTO DAY THREE.  A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING DURING SHOCK PASSAGE ALSO EXISTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
CLASS M    25/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 SEP 141
PREDICTED   11 SEP-13 SEP  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        10 SEP 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP  018/020-020/020-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 SEP-13 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/30
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/35
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05