:Product: 20000911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9154 (S17W91) WAS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHED
THE WEST LIMB. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 11/0715Z. REGION 9158
(N29E19), UNIMPRESSIVE NOW IN WHITE LIGHT WITH NO SPOTS VISIBLE,
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1810Z. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LARGE
FILAMENT IN THE NW QUADRANT HAVE DISAPPEARED, BUT THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF A CME, ON GROUND OR SPACE-BASED IMAGERY. NEW REGION
9161 (N06E04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 9154 STILL MAINTAINS BEST POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS
IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. WITH REGION 9154'S DEPARTURE, SOLAR
ACTIVITY MAY REACH VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS ON DAY ONE. EFFECTS FROM THE 09 AUG, M1/1N FLARE ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 SEP 135
PREDICTED   12 SEP-14 SEP  130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        11 SEP 179
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP  012/012-008/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05