:Product: 20000914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 258 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
9166 (S13E71) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 14/0627Z. LIMB PROXIMITY
IS INHIBITING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THIS REGION, BUT FREQUENT
SURGING AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS SUGGEST A MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION
ROTATING INTO VIEW. REGION 9165 (N13E13) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. FROM A SIMPLE SMALL THREE SPOT BETA CONFIGURATION
YESTERDAY, THIS REGION EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP WITH
OVER 20 SPOTS COVERING NEARLY 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SLIGHT
GROWTH WAS ALSO NOTED IN REGIONS 9156 (S26W53), AND 9162 (S32W63).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF REGION 9165, AND NEW REGION 9166.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE >10 MEV PROTON
EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE
OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY
SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 18 PFU. THE PCA THAT BEGAN
NEAR 12/1830Z, ENDED AT 14/1532Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SOON EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. A CME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 12 SEP, M1/2N FLARE WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY ON
DAY ONE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY ONE AND
RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE >10 MEV
PROTON EVENT SHOULD END ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE EXPECTED CME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/15
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     99/30/05
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 SEP 151
PREDICTED   15 SEP-17 SEP  155/160/170
90 DAY MEAN        14 SEP 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  050/045-015/012-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/20
MINOR STORM           40/30/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    40/20/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/40/25
MINOR STORM           45/40/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    45/20/10
COMMENTS
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