:Product: 20000919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 263 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9165 (N15W54) PRODUCED
AN M5/1N AT 19/0826 UTC.  THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II
RADIO SWEEP AND A 360 SFU TENFLARE.  REGION 9166 (S13E11) AND 9169
(N09E60) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS.  REGION 9169 IS EXHIBITING
A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND IS THE LARGEST REGION
VISIBLE ON THE DISK WITH 2140 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 9165, 9166,
AND 9169.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
ISOLATED MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
PERIOD OF 19/1800 UTC.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DAYS
TWO AND THREE OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 SEP 207
PREDICTED   20 SEP-22 SEP  210/215/215
90 DAY MEAN        19 SEP 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 SEP  028/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  025/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                75/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
COMMENTS
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