:Product: 20000922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 266 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN
REGION 9169 (N10E13), WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE LARGEST BEING A C5/SF IN PROGRESS AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, 22/2100 UTC.  THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND
MOST IMPRESSIVE ON THE DISK, EXHIBITING AN INCREASED NUMBER OF SPOTS
WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED AREAL EXTENT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND RETAINING
A BETA-DELTA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.  REGION 9166 (S12W30)
ALSO PRODUCED SOME C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  REGION 9169
REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME
FROM REGION 9169, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS BY DAY THREE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 SEP 232
PREDICTED   23 SEP-25 SEP  235/235/230
90 DAY MEAN        22 SEP 179
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
VI.  COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE.  THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS.  ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT.  FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML