:Product: 20000924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 268 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 9166 (S11W57)
PRODUCED AN M4/2N FLARE AT 24/0338 UTC, AS WELL AS NUMEROUS C-CLASS
FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  REGION 9169 (N11W09) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1F AT 23/2142 UTC.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 9172 (N12E70) AND 9173 (S13E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 9169 AND 9166 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MAJOR FLARES AND ASSOCIATED PROTON ACTIVITY, AS THEY TRANSIT THE
GEOEFFECTIVE LONGITUDES TOWARDS THE WESTERN LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.  A LATE PERIOD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS WAS OBSERVED DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH
SPEED STREAM EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE.  GREATER-THAN-2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING
LOCAL DAYTIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING,
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM EFFECTS THROUGH DAY ONE.
EFFECTS SHOULD MODERATE ON DAY TWO, REDUCING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 SEP 225
PREDICTED   25 SEP-27 SEP  225/220/215
90 DAY MEAN        24 SEP 180
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP  018/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01