:Product: 20000928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 272 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  WHILE STILL A LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP, REGION 9169 (N12W58) HAS DECAYED FURTHER AND NOW MEASURES
APPROXIMATELY 790 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH 51 SPOTS.
REGION 9170 (S06W63) HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY.
SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9173 (S12E25), AND THE REGION
HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS.  NEW REGION 9178
(S23E63) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.  THERE REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  TWO PERIODS OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED.  CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE
NOW NEGLIGIBLE.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 SEP 202
PREDICTED   29 SEP-01 OCT  195/190/180
90 DAY MEAN        28 SEP 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
VII.  COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE.  THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS.  ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT.  FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML