:Product: 20000930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 274 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  IT IS BELIEVED REGION
9178 (S23E40) PRODUCED A SLOW RISE, LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT
THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 30/1827Z.   A SECOND M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED
AT 30/2016Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  REGIONS 9173 (S11W02) AND
9178 PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.  GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178.  REGION 9176 NOW
HAS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 24 SPOTS.
NEW REGION 9179 (N34E07) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 9173, 9176 (S09E31), AND 9178 EACH HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.  A
DISTURBANCE OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN BEGAN AROUND 30/0400Z.  MAJOR STORM
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM APPROXIMATELY
30/0800 - 1200Z.  THE MID LATITUDES OBSERVED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
DURING THE SAME PERIOD.  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RETURN TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY,
BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
CLASS M    60/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 SEP 194
PREDICTED   01 OCT-03 OCT  185/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        30 SEP 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  025/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  012/015-010/012-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
VII.  COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE.  THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS.  ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT.  FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML