:Product: 20001003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C4/Sf
at 02/2131Z from region 9182 (S02E63).  Region 9177 (N28W68)
produced a C1/Sf flare at 03/0736Z with an associated type II radio
sweep (shock speed 400 km/s).  A few small C-class flares punctuated
the remainder of the day.  New regions 9183 (S31W32) and 9184
(S15E60) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes.
Data from the ACE spacecraft showed the signature of a solar
transient beginning at approximately 03/00Z, although a clear shock
was not evident.  The Boulder magnetometer registered a sudden
impulse of 11 nanoteslas at 03/0057Z.  This transient is possibly
due to the C3/Sf flare observed at 01/1304Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storming possible for the
first two days of the forecast period.  Effects from a CME seen
yesterday are expected over the first two days.  By day three the
field should be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 192
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  190/185/185
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  025/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  015/015-020/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05