:Product: 20001011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9182
(N03W51) produced isolated C-class subflares including a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 11/0627 UTC. This region has gradually
developed during the last two days. Minor growth was also noted in
Region 9190 (S17E35) and newly numbered Region 9192 (S14E02). New
Region 9193 (N10W04) was also numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.There will be chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9182.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with brief active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on 12 - 13
October due to an expected CME passage. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 October. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high
levels during the latter half of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    30/30/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 151
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  150/155/165
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  035/035-020/025-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/25
Minor storm           40/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor storm           40/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/01