:Product: 20001013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2000
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels.
The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated
subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC.  Region
9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC.  No radio sweeps or
halos were observed in association with these events.  Numerous
C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the
remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65)
at 13/0414 UTC.  Other regions were stable and exhibited no
notable activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from
regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels.  A shock
passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was
observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC.  Minor storming and isolated major
storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC.
Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing
chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with
the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 168
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/195/205
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  023/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  012/012-015/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01