:Product: 20001016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The largest event of
the day was an LDE M2 flare at 16/0728UT (1.75 hr), with associated
Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps.  SOHO/LASCO and EIT imagery
suggest a CME source behind the west limb - most likely Region 9182,
at about N04W105.  An associated full halo (with faint east limb
extension) was also reported by SOHO/LASCO.  Prior to this event, a
weaker LDE C7 flare was observed at 16/0549UT.  Optical correlation
was not available, but EIT imagery suggests the likely source as
Region 9193 (N06W74).  This region also produced a C1/Sf at
16/2020UT.  Other activity was limited to region 9199 (N12E54),
producing a C1/Sf at 16/1711UT.  Region 9194 (S11E09) exhibited
growth in spot count and magnetic complexity (now a Dai group in
Beta-Gamma mag configuration), but produced no flares.  Region 9200
(S16E58) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with an isolated chance of moderate-level
activity for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Coronal hole high speed
stream effects were evident, but produced only one active period
during 16/00-03UT.  A 10 MeV solar proton event associated with the
M2 LDE commenced at 16/1125UT, and remains in progress.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled through day one, with some
possibility of isolated active conditions due to waning coronal hole
effects.  The greater than 10 MeV SPE currently in progress is
expected to end during day one.  A greater chance of active levels
during day two may result from flanking passage of a CME-associated
shock from the LDE M2 flare discussed above.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 161
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  160/165/175
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/010-012/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01