:Product: 20001017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9193 (N05W86) produced a
long-duration C3/Sf flare at 17/0204UT. Minor C-class subfaint
flares also occurred in Region 9200 (S18E46). New Region 9201
(N16E69) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Just an isolated chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated in a high speed coronal hole stream, but is in slow
decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
16/1125UT, ended at 17/0210UT. The  peak of 15 pfu occurred at
16/1840UT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible
on day two from the large CME observed early on 16 Oct.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 154
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  160/170/180
90 Day Mean        17 Oct  174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  010/010-015/015-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05