:Product: 20001018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated long
duration C4 flare occurred at 17/2205UT. Very isolated low C-class
flares were also observed. Regions 9199 (N12E24) and 9201 (N17E57)
exhibited minor growth, but have been relatively dormant. New region
9202 (N14E26) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Mostly minor c-class flares expected.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons were at moderate to high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible
tomorrow in response to the CME observed early on 16 Oct. Mostly
quiet to unsettled on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 151
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  015/015-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05