:Product: 20001020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9199 (N08W04) produced
a couple of minor C-class events.  Region 9201 showed moderate
growth during the period.  New Regions 9203 (N15W15), and 9204
(N09E15) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on day two and three as a coronal hole rotates into a more
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    25/25/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 161
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  165/165/175
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  008/010-015/020-018/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/40
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/45
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05