:Product: 20001021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9201 (N16E19)
produced an M3/1N flare at 21/1831 UTC. This region also produced a
few low level C-class flares. Region 9199 (N10W17) also generated
C-class activity, the largest flare being a C5/SF at 21/0956 UTC.
Neither of these regions appear particularly large or complex.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
although another small M-class flare is possible in Region 9199 or
Region 9201.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may
increase over the next day, including isolated active periods, due
to a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 158
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/015-015/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01