:Product: 20001025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The day's most interesting
occurrence was a long-duration C4 x-ray flare which peaked at 1125
UTC. This nearly seven-hour long event was likely from a site past
west limb. LASCO imagery show a CME from that approximate location
during this time. The disk regions were stable. One new region, 9209
(S25E71) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity  is expected to remain
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at
approximately 1330 UTC. The flux is currently near 10 pfu. This
increase is attributed to the flare/CME activity from the west limb
at 1125 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled throughout the period. The
greater than 10 MeV protons should return to background levels
during the next 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 164
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05