:Product: 20001028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. An
unobserved M1 x-ray flare occurred at 1849 UTC. Weather hampered
patrol, but that event is likely from one of the new regions just on
the disk. Newly numbered region 9212 (N06E76) produced a C9/sf at
0710 UTC. Another new region, 9214 (S13E70) has been bright in
H-alpha. The third new region, 9213 (N00E71), has been quiet. The
visible disk has ten spotted regions. Little else of significance
occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the period. The anticipated
shock from the CME on the 25th passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 0900 UTC. Enhanced IMF and speed followed, resulting
in a stint of active to minor storm conditions. Unsettled levels
prevailed by the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next 24 hours. The
calming trend should continue throughout the interval, with
unsettled conditions dominating the last two days.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 182
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05