:Product: 20001104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only several minor C-class
events were observed.  The SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates a weak full
halo earth-directed CME occurred from a long duration C3/sf
yesterday at approximately 03/2000Z.  The C3 event was produced by
Region 9213 near disk center at the time.  Moderate decay was
observed in Region 9212 (N09W20) since yesterday.  New Region 9221
(S15E75) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm.  A shock was
observed at the ACE spacecraft at L1 at approximately 04/0130Z.  A
sudden impulse occurred at 04/0222Z (12 nT, as measured by the
boulder USGS magnetometer).  Unsettled to minor storm conditions
were observed following the shock arrival.  This shock is presumed
to be related to the full halo CME back on 1 November.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit also briefly became
enhanced near the time of the sudden impulse.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the first day of the
period.  Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes.
Active conditions may continue on the second day due to the expected
arrival of the weak full halo CME on 03 November mentioned above in
1a.  By the third day conditions are expected to return to
predominantly quiet to unsettled.  A high-speed coronal hole stream
may also help keep activity levels unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 195
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  190/190/185
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  012/015-015/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/25
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01