:Product: 20001105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Nov 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class events occurred with the largest one being a C5/1f event from Region 9218 (N20W14) at 05/0149Z. New regions 9222 (N17W35) and 9223 (S19E71) were numbered today. Region 9222 has shown strong growth during the period. An active dark filament lies between Regions 9218 and 9222. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Overall, there is an increasing number of regions on the disk capable of producing M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The effects of the earth-directed CME back on 01 November have subsided. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to predominantly unsettled to active conditions the first day of the period due to the arrival of a weak full halo CME on 03 November. Minor storm conditions are possible in the higher latitudes. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions for the rest of the period. III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov Class M 50/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Nov 186 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 015/018-010/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/20 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/30/25 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01