:Product: 20001106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9210 (S25W82) produced
a C2/1f at 06/0936 UTC.  The remainder of the regions on the disk
remained stable through the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions.  The
anticipated shock from the CME on November 3rd passed the ACE
spacecraft at approximately 06/0915 UTC.  Enhanced IMF and speed
followed, resulting in active to major storm conditions prevailing
from 1200 UTC through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active for the next 24 hours with
brief periods of minor storm conditions possible.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions should prevail for days two and three of the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 178
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  030/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  015/020-008/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01