:Product: 20001108RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Nov 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. A new region assigned today as Region 9226 (N10W94) has produced two M-class and several C-class events. The first event was an M1 at 08/0958 UTC, which was optically correlated with a CME visible in the LASCO/EIT imagery. The second event was an M2/1f at 08/1636 UTC. This region emerged late yesterday and lies in close proximity to Region 9222 (N16W77) and Region 9213 (N04W78). Another region was numbered today as Region 9227 (S13E52). An impressive full halo CME was observed on LASCO near 08/0450 UTC, but appears to have originated behind the visible disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Activity is likely to decrease to low levels on day three as the regions on the west limb rotate around the disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one and two of the forecast period. Day three is expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole stream. III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov Class M 50/50/40 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Nov 173 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 029/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 010/010-010/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/40 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05