:Product: 20001113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours.
The largest flare event was a C2 at 1211Z which was not observed
optically. Region 9227 (S11W14) continues to grow slowly and
produced a C2/Sf flare at 1630Z. Two new regions rotated into view
today: Region 9231 (S23E72) and Region 9232 (N26E76). Both appear to
be moderate-sized D-type sunspot groups.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from any of regions 9227, 9231, or 9232.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind continues to show a high-speed solar wind
stream, but the average interplanetary Bz magnetic field component
has been weakly positive. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 08/2350z and reached a maximum of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600Z
ended today at 13/0745Z. The flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at
GOES has been at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days and is
expected to be quiet to unsettled by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 144
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  020/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  010/010-010/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05