:Product: 20001114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1
X-ray flare occurred at 14/1634 UTC. No ground-based optical reports
were received for this flare, but SOHO/EIT images indicate that this
flare originated near the northeast limb, possibly from newly
numbered Region 9233 (N13E76). Region 9231 (S24E56) increased in
spot count and area during the day. It produced occasional
subflares, the largest of which was a C7/2n at 14/0806 UTC. A Type
IV radio sweep began at 14/0831 UTC and may have been associated
with the C7/2n flare. A Type II radio sweep occurred at 14/0902 UTC.
Minor spot growth occurred in Region 9227 (S10W28).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flare activity is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
during most of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to
normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 149
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/155/160
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  010/012-008/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01