:Product: 20001117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9231 (S24E19) produced isolated C-class subflares. It stabilized as a medium-sized F-type group with moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9235 (N14E51) also produced isolated C-class subflares. A 32-degree filament erupted from the southwest quadrant beginning around 17/0700 UTC. A CME was associated with the eruption, but it was not Earth-directed. No new regions were assigned. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce isolated M-class flares during the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the period due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 163 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 010/010-015/020-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/30 Minor storm 05/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/40/35 Minor storm 05/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/05