:Product: 20001118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 9235 (N12E34)
produced an M1/1f flare at 18/1325Z, with an associated Type II
radio sweep.  SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME
directed off the east limb, though not appearing to be earth
directed.  Region 9231 (S24E05) also produced an M1/Sf flare at
18/1100Z, as well as an LDE C2/1f flare at 17/2051Z, which was in
progress at the end of last period.  Other activity included
numerous C-class flares from regions 9235, 9231, and 9227 (S09W85).
Both regions 9235 and 9231 exhibited increased spot counts.  Two new
regions were numbered today, 9236 (N19E71) and 9237 (N10W19).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9231 and 9235 are the most likely sources of
isolated M-class activity. Today's newly numbered regions may also
be a source of moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with a single interval of
unsettled conditions observed at higher latitudes during
18/1800-2100Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above
threshold for most of the day until falling below at 18/2025Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active, with minor storming possible
at higher latitudes, due to the influence of a favorably positioned
coronal hole through day one and into day two.  Activity should
decrease to predominately unsettled levels by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 177
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  180/185/185
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  015/020-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01