:Product: 20001121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate, due to a single
impulsive M1/Sn flare from Region 9237 (N10W61), 7-spot Cro beta, at
21/1917Z.  Prior to this event, only sporadic minor C-class activity
was observed. New Region 9239 (S23E73), a single spot Hsx alpha, was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  In addition to continuing activity from Region 9237 as
it approaches the west limb, Regions 9231 (S23W36) and 9235 (N11W08)
remain possible sources for moderate events. Previously active
heliographic longitudes, thought to be the source for an impressive
full-halo CME on 16 November, are also due to return beginning on 23
November.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet, with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at all latitudes for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 185
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  180/180/185
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05