:Product: 20001122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Nov 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9236 (N20E19) became very active early in the period and has produced several c-class flares. The largest flare from this region was a C7/1n at 22/1621Z, with associated Type II sweep and moderate to strong radio bursts, including a 500sfu Tenflare. Small C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9237 (N09W73) and 9240 (N09E72). New region 9240 (N09E72) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next three days. Regions 9231 (S24W50) and 9236 are complex and have good potential for an isolated M-class flare. Previous active longitudes, responsible for several impressive CME's, are rotating to view on the East limb and may well increase the chance for M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet through 1200Z, but was mostly unsettled since then. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov Class M 50/60/60 Class X 10/15/15 Proton 05/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Nov 195 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 200/210/210 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05