:Product: 20001208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class X-ray
flares were observed, mostly from Region 9246 as it rotates around
the west limb near S11. Very little change was noted on the existing
six spotted regions. New region 9262 (N13E70) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Most activity will likely originate from Region 9246
as it rotates out of view on the SW limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The field began the period
at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, but predominantly unsettled to
active conditions began at 07/2300Z following the onset of a high
speed coronal hole stream. Current solar wind speed from this large
transequatorial coronal hole is now near 650 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active conditions
through day one in response to the high speed coronal hole stream.
Minor storming is likely at high latitudes. This disturbance should
subside through day two. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
thereafter.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 138
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  020/025-010/015-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01