:Product: 20001209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several minor C-class X-ray
events with no optical correlation were observed.  Most of the
number regions showed little change with only region 9262 indicating
some slight growth since yesterday.  New region 9263 (N18E67) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.  The solar wind has maintained an average speed
between 600 to 650 km/s during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantely unsettled to active the first half of
the period becoming more quiet to unsettled during the last half.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible in the high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 135
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  014/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/35/25
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01